Singapore, 44 years on...

As the Nation celebrates its 44th birthday this weekend, it is indeed exciting to take a sneak peek where Singapore will be 44 years from now.

But before we whip out the crystal ball, perhaps our history will give us a clue or two.

Back in my PSB-days, I was privileged to be chosen as one of the trainers for PMP, or Productivity Management Program. It was one of the compulsory programs that all officers have to not only attend, but also sit for a test. Failing which, the officer will have to re-sit for the course and the assessment, till s/he passes.

It was a course to inform or perhaps educate Singapore's journey towards a first-world nation. Briefly, we cover the progress from a labor-intensive economy to a capital-intensive one. Where machines replaced people (and lower value added work); it pushed the country to look at productivity. In other words, for each person employed, we should see an increase in output.

Then from capital-intensive, we moved to an investment-intensive one. Which means we no longer just focused on getting machines in, we are watching how each investment dollar can bring about a higher level of output.

Its not that we were crazy about production, but the higher the output, the higher our gross domestic product. Which in lay terms mean higher income per person. Then between the time I left the service up until now, it was generally focused on the service economy.

For a country to shift its dependence on services; we need two critical elements. One, people (and smart ones at that). Two, ideas (and good ones at that). However one may argue, the statistics speak for themselves. While we aim to tilt the scale towards a service economy, it is not working as well as it should.

One could argue that while Singaporeans are smart; ideas and good ones are far and few between. So, where does this leave us?

A common factor that runs through the years in keeping the country afloat is the inbound element. In the 70s to even till recently, Singapore rely mainly on foreign multinationals, foreign direct investments, foreign talents, and the likes. And this will also be the cornerstone of this country's development in the next forty years.

Imagine Singapore in 40 years time. Where would it stand in the global economy? For a start, the global economy will definitely be Asia-centric. Much like it has been US-centric in the last 100 years. In the year 2053, the world economy will be dependent on Asia.

However there is but one problem. Asia has a more diverse culture than Europe or US. Income disparity will also be wider than Europe or US. Language. And educational level too.

Where does Singapore fits in? Well, for a start, there will still be the dependence on foreign ideas. How it would pan out? This is my read.

This is the future.

In 2053, Singapore will be a mini-Asia (ex Japan and Korea). What that means is that, if you are from Europe or US; or even some other parts of Asia, you will come to Singapore. Because it is here where you will find a mini-Vietnam, a small India, a taste of Mongolia. How could this be possible?

One word, education (both pre-employment and continuing education).

And all this is possible because the government has developed this place to be an education-hub. And with good quality educational institutions (both mainstream and private), you will naturally draw talents to this place. If in doubt, count the number of brilliant people going to the US.

Once you draw the talents to this place, they will see for themselves the kind of possibilities and opportunities for them. Hence these foreigners after getting their education here may choose to stay here for a while. And since this place is highly competitive, if you don't make it, you leave. Just like New York.

So, for those who stay here, they are likely to be the ones that are more competitive, more enterprising, more resourceful, and of course, more good ideas. Hence, instead of looking at foreign investments, it is now foreign ideas.

It is good, as with the influx of new ideas, it will enable the country to generate a higher income or gross domestic product. Because ideas are not dependent on physical resources, ideas are non-competiting (meaning if you have an idea it doesn't cause me to be poorer of), ideas are exponential (meaning a simple idea can generate 1000%, 10,000%, or even 1,000,000%), ideas when mixed with other ideas can become a new idea, and the list goes now.

In other words, a country that depends on ideas will experience abundant wealth. As there are no limits. Hence, the government needs to create an environment that ideas are encouraged, ideas are given chances to be nurtured, ideas can lead to more ideas!

So where does this leave us?

One word - education.

What our Schools are currently doing will not only ensure the survival of Singapore, it will also increase the likelihood of survival for Singaporeans. It is time we ask ourselves, how are we nurturing ideas creation in School.

Do we give enough emphasis to encourage ideas? Not just for the kids, but what about the teachers? Are we ensuring that we are able to harness knowledge? Get our teachers to create knowledge? Do we have the systems to select, collect, and capture knowledge? Will we become a true knowledge-based economy?

Or will we see our children becoming employees (nothing wrong in becoming an employee) to these foreign ideas? Where because our children are unable to generate better, more valuable, creative ideas than the foreign ideas?

In summary I recommend three things we can look at:

(i) idea mind-set: we need a shift in paradigm towards being idea-rich. You don't need to have lots of money to be rich. You can be idea rich. What it means is that, banks should ask for ideas as collaterals. We also need to shift the mind-set towards "the best idea wins". So let's examine our own mind-set. How strong are we?

(ii) idea skill-set: we need a different set of skills. For instance, the ability to synthesize now becomes really important. Are we able to put two ideas together and come up with an even better idea? Or maybe to do a one+one = 100? Do we have the necessary skills? Its not just about being creative. That's so 2000. Its now about who have the ability to also sell those ideas.

(iii) idea tool-set: our environment must facilitate the growth of ideas. How do we give people the tools to make their ideas work? What kind of tools are these? Some are tangible, some are not. Laws are necessary but the societal acceptance of ideas abound is equally necessary.

Remember Victor Hugo said, "No army can stop an idea whose time has come."

Your friend,
Melvyn
(Sent from my Blackberry Bold)